China’s Missing Offer to Europe ahead of the Eu-China Summit

China is not likely to give the EU any meaningful deliverables at a summit meeting in Beijing, and even less likely to address the structural challenges that it presents to Europe. With this limited offer, China cannot expect that the summit will be more than a dialogue for the sake of dialogue

di Abigaël Vasselier

The European Union has been preparing for the Eu-China summit on December 7-8 with one mantra: “limited expectations.” Europe has not given up on engaging China and offering scope for meaningful dialogue. However, long gone is the idea that the hallmark of a successful summit is a long and substantial joint statement. There is no return to 2019 in Eu-China relations. It is time for realism, nuance, and complexity on both sides. The Covid-19 pandemic, increased geopolitical competition between the US and China and a growing list of irritants in the bilateral relationship undermine the possibility to agree on substantial outcomes. At the same time, dialogue for the sake of dialogue is maybe not such a bad outcome in the current circumstances.

The Eu has always walked into meetings with the Chinese leadership in “good faith” and with a European offer to China, as explained by Commission President von der Leyen on November 16 at the Ecfr-Merics European China Conference. This time, there is no naivety that Eu’s structural challenges will be addressed in such a meeting but at least a hope that the Eu and China can agree to soften the rough edges of their bilateral relations by addressing their respective irritants and agreeing on some low-hanging fruits. On the eve of the 2024 Eu-China Summit, Europe knows where it stands and what it has to offer to China.

China, on the other hand, wants a feel-good moment with Europe in Beijing, with sprinkles and cotillons for the 20th anniversary of the Eu-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Beijing would like to see a rectification of the trajectory of Eu-China relations ahead of 2024, a year of turbulences and uncertainties in view of a new Us administration. China cannot afford to lose Europe. Nonetheless, for Beijing, it is difficult to reconcile the idea of celebration with a friend that says that “systemic rivalry” is spreading across all areas of the relationship, restricts your presence on its territory and launches investigations and sanctions against you.

Still, at this stage, face time with the Chinese President, visa facilitation for a limited number of countries and a surprising lifting of trade barriers imposed on Lithuania are the goodies to shape a good atmosphere. This will not convince the Europeans, because China had clearly more to offer to the Us at the meeting of Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in San Francisco. In fact, Europeans are probably not transactional enough for China.

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