Seriously ugly: here’s how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century

This decade must be transformational, and one where we choose a safer future. We don’t have much time to avert catastrophe. The report upon which this article is based, The Risks to Australia of a 3°C Warmer World, was authored and reviewed by 21 experts

di Ove Hoegh-Guldberg* e Lesley Hughes**

Imagine, for a moment, a different kind of Australia. One where bushfires on the catastrophic scale of Black Summer happen almost every year. One where 50℃ days in Sydney and Melbourne are common. Where storms and flooding have violently reshaped our coastlines, and unique ecosystems have been damaged beyond recognition – including the Great Barrier Reef, which no longer exists.

Frighteningly, this is not an imaginary future dystopia. It’s a scientific projection of Australia under 3℃ of global warming – a future we must both strenuously try to avoid, but also prepare for.

The sum of current commitments under the Paris climate accord puts Earth on track for 3℃ of warming this century. Research released today by the Australian Academy of Science explores this scenario in detail.
The report, which we co-authored with colleagues, lays out the potential damage to Australia. Unless the world changes course and dramatically curbs greenhouse gas emissions, this is how bad it could get.

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  * Professor, The University of Queensland

** Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University